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Editor's note: This section of Science Speaks regarding
the fulfillment of prophecy appears to have followed the
arguments given in, and relied upon the evidence taken from, a
book in Peter Stoner's library titled, Fulfilled Prophecies that Prove the Bible, by George T. B. Davis, The Million
Testaments Campaign, 1505 Race Street, Philadelphia, Penna., C
1931.
Many very significant changes have taken place in the
mideast since 1931. Of recent interest was the intended rebuilding
of Babylon by Saddam Hussain. When I started trying to update Science
Speaks, I was cautioned several times that Babylon might be on the verge
of being rebuilt. I admit to being somewhat nervous about this. A mere
day or two before George W. Bush began his attack, an atheist e-mailed me,
warning that the biblical prophecy about Babylon was about to be proven
false. While I was mulling over how to reply, the bombs fell and history
headed off in a different direction. I worry that the enthusiam in my
reply to that atheist may have exceed the limits set by good manners.
The combined causes of liberating the Iraqi people, making
the world safer from terrorists, and even eliminating the
possible threat of "weapons of mass destruction" (the existance
of which seemed to have been unchallenged by anyone before the
war) may have all been important causes; but one has to wonder
whether the real reason Saddam Hussain was stopped was simply
that God protects his Word. Prophecy must stand.
Another change which concerns me involves the expansion
of modern Tyre (satellite image right - search: "Sour, Lebanon" on Google maps, or get
Google Earth download for a better image).
I have been unable to obtain good enough information to know exactly
where the ancient mainland city used to be (and, therefore, can't
tell whether or not the site has been built over). Ruins appear to be
visible on presently-unbuilt parts of both the ancient island and
mainland areas.
Because of all that has happened, Chapter two of Science
Speaks is severely in need of updating. Unfortunately, I (Don Stoner) am not personally qualified to accomplish this rework.
It is presented here, largely unchanged.
Science Speaks, by Peter W. Stoner
PROPHETIC ACCURACY
Section Contents:
.. Tyre (satellite image right)
.. Samaria
.. Gaza and Ashkelon
.. Jerico
.. The Golden Gate
.. Zion Plowed
.. Jerusalem Enlarged
.. Palestine
.. Moab and Ammon
.. Edom
.. Babylon
.. Summary
One jot or one tittle shall in no wise pass from the law,
till all be fulfilled - Matthew 5:18
Show the things that are to come hereafter, that we may know
that ye are gods - Isaiah 41:23
MUCH HAS BEEN WRITTEN about the fulfillment of biblical
prophecies. Many archaeological expeditions have delved into the ruins of old
cities referred to in biblical accounts, and have written reports of their
findings, showing that the biblical accounts were accurate. Many books have
been written showing how prophecies have been fulfilled and are yet being
fulfilled. As far as I have been able to find, very little has been written to
show just how definitely this fulfillment of prophecy does prove the Bible to
be the inspired Word of God.
This chapter is being written so that the person who is in
doubt about the inspiration of the Bible may be given strong evidence upon
which to anchor his faith. Only a very few of the great number of prophecies
which could be considered are being used, and only a very brief account is
given of the fulfillment of these prophecies; just sufficient to make
evaluation possible. Other books are suggested for more complete treatments. In
some cases references are given to histories and other books, so as to
facilitate the checking of the facts from sources outside of the Bible.
I am making use of the well-known principle of probability.
If the chance of one thing happening is one in M, and the chance of another
independent thing happening is one in N, then the chance that they shall both
happen is one in M times N. The proof of this theory will be found in any
college algebra text. I shall only illustrate the truth of the principle.
Suppose one man in every ten is bald, and one man in 100 has lost a finger,
then one man in every 1,000 (the product of 10 and 100) is both bald and has
lost a finger. To show the truth of this conclusion, suppose you take 1,000 men
at random and sort out all that are bald. Since one in ten is bald you will
have just 100 bald men in the 1,000. The other 900 are not bald, therefore
cannot both be bald and have lost a finger. f Now go through these 100 bald men
and look for men who have lost a finger. Since only one man in 100 has lost a
finger, you will find only one in this group. This man then is both bald and
has lost a finger, and he is the only man who fills the two conditions. In
other words, we could say that the chance of a boy becoming bald is one in ten,
and the chance of a boy losing a finger is one in 100. Therefore, the chance
that a particular boy shall become bald and lose a finger is one in ten times
100, or one in 1,000. Thus the theory is seen to be true.
If the events are not entirely independent, a somewhat
different theory of probability must be used.
If the chance of one thing happening is one in M, and after
it happens the chance that a second and related event will happen is one in N,
then the chance that both will happen is one in M times N.
Let me illustrate. What is the chance that a young man will
eventually lose both his first and second fingers? We cannot find the answer by
asking the questions: One man in how many men has lost his second finger? and
then multiplying the two results. The loss of the first and second finger is
often related. The same accident that takes the second finger is very apt to
take the first finger also. We must ask the questions: One man in how many men
loses one of his first two fingers? And one man in how many men after losing
one of his first two fingers also loses the other? Then we may multiply these
results.
This principle will be carefully adhered to throughout this
treatment of probability in the following pages.
These theories of probability are the foundation on which
the rates are fixed for all kinds of insurance, and its truth has been proved
in practice in every application.
The probability of the fulfillment of the items of various
prophecies is difficult to arrive at. The abilities used in this treatment are
an attempt to give the chance of the prophetic items being fulfilled if they
had been written only with human knowledge. The author has used the mean of the
estimates given him by some seven hundred college students over a period of
more than ten years as a starting point, but he has carefully weighed these and
changed all that seemed questionable. In nearly all changes the estimates were
made more consecutive. no attempt will be made, however, to defend these
estimates. The reader should feel perfectly free to make the estimates which
seem reasonable and conservative to him. He should then compute with his own
estimates the probability of the fulfillment of the prophecies. The author
believes, however, that the reader may wish to increase as many values as he
would decrease and thus make very little change in the final results. At any
rate his computed results will be conclusive.
Ezekiel 26:3-5, 7, 12, 14, 16 (written 590 B.C.) reads:
Therefore thus saith the Lord God; Behold, I am against
thee, O Tyrus, and will cause many nations to come up against thee, as the sea
causeth his waves to come up. And they shall destroy the walls of Tyrus, and
break down her towers: I will also scrape her dust from her, and make her like
the top of a rock. It shall be a place for the spreading of nets ... For thus
saith the Lord God; Behold, I will bring upon Tyrus Nebuchadrezzar King of
Babylon... and they shall lay thy stones and thy timber and thy dust in the
midst of the water... And I will make thee like the top of a rock: thou shalt
be a place to spread nets upon; thou shalt be built no more: for I the Lord
have spoken it, saith the Lord God ... Then all the princes of the sea shall
come down from their thrones, and lay away their robes, and put off their
broidered garments: they shall clothe themselves with trembling.
This prophecy predicts the destruction of Tyre and states
seven definite things which shall take place:
1. Nebuchadnezzar shall take the city of Tyre.
2. Other nations are to participate in the fulfillment of the prophecy. (Fig 7)
3. The city is to be made flat like the top of a rock.
4. It is to become a place for spreading of nets.
5. Its stones and timber are to be laid in the sea.
6. Other cities are to fear greatly at the fall of Tyre.
7. The old city of Tyre shall never be rebuilt.
Tyre was a city on the northern coast of Palestine inhabited b the Phoenicians,
a strong maritime people, greatly feared by their enemies. (The king of Tyre
supplied timbers of Solomon in the building of the temple.) In 586 B.C.,
Nebuchadnezzar, king of Babylon, laid siege to the city of Tyre. The siege
lasted for thirteen years; and when Nebuchadnezzar took the city in 573 B.C.,
he found that the Phoenicians had moved everything of value to an island about
one-half mile off the coast. Though the city was taken, Nebuchadnezzar profited
nothing, and the Phoenicians were not conquered. Nebuchadnezzar could not pursue
them to their island position, so he returned to Babylon. Thus the first item
of the prophecy was fulfilled: (1) Nebuchadnezzar shall take the city of Tyre.
For 241 years the mainland city of Tyre remained very much
as Nebuchadnezzar left it. Later, Alexander city Great started his great
conquest. His field of campaign lay to the east, but he feared that the fleet
of Tyre might be used against his homeland, so he moved south to take the city
of Tyre. In 332 B.C., Alexander reached Tyre, but he was unable to take the
city at once. So he captured other coastal cities and took over their fleets,
but with these combined fleets he was still unable to take Tyre. Alexander
finally built a causeway from the mainland to the island. In building the
causeway he used all the building materials of old Tyre, and that was not
enough. He scraped up all of the soil in and around the old city and with it
completed the causeway. After seven months, by a combined attack of land forces
marching in over the causeway, and the fleets of conquered cities, he took
Tyre. Thus items 2,3, and 5 of the prophecy were fulfilled: (2) Other nations
are to participate in the fulfillment of the prophecy. (3) The city is to be
made flat like the top of a rock. (5) Its stones and timber are to be laid in
the sea.
Fig. 6. Phoenician fortifications and ancient causeway. Tyre, Lebanon.
Courtesy of Moody Institute of Science
Other neighboring cities were so frightened by the conquest
of Tyre that they opened their gates to Alexander without opposition and
fulfilled another item: (6) Other cities are to fear greatly at the fall of
Tyre.
Today visitors at the old city of Tyre find it is a very
popular place for fisherman; they are spreading their nets on this very spot.
Thus prediction 4 has been completely fulfilled: (4) It is to become a place
for spreading of nets.
The great freshwater springs of Raselain are at the site of
the mainland city of Tyre, and no doubt supplied the city with an abundance of
fresh water. These springs are still there and still flow, but their water runs
into the sea. The flow of these springs was measured by an engineer, and found
to be about 10,000,000 gallons daily. It is still an excellent site for a city
and would have free water enough for a large modern city, yet it has never been
rebuilt. Thus item 7 of the prophecy has stood true for more than 2,500 years:
(7) The old city of Tyre shall never be rebuilt.
This prophecy by Ezekiel has been fulfilled to the last
item. Let us try to evaluate the evidence of inspiration as supplied by the
fulfillment of this prophecy.
History shows that while many of the cities in the vicinity of
Tyre were often captured and recaptured by various forces, Tyre usually
withstood these attacks and remained a free city. Tyre and Babylon represented
two very different military powers--Tyre, naval, and Babylon, a land force.
Each had left the other strictly alone. My groups of college students were
asked to imagine that Ezekiel was writing from his own human knowledge, and
then to give an estimate of the following:
1. Ezekiel had one chance in how many of knowing, or being
able to predict, that Nebuchadnezzar would take the city of Tyre? Since
Nebuchadnezzar was conquering many cities, and since Tyre was besieged four
years after the prophecy was made, it must have been a reasonable thing to
predict.
Nebuchadnezzar might have tried to take Tyre and failed, or
he might have succeeded, or he might have never tried. An estimate of one in
three was chosen.
2. What chance did Ezekiel have of knowing that
Nebuchadnezzar would, in his conquering of Tyre, not completely fulfill the
prophecy of destruction, but other nations would later come in and complete the
fulfillment? The indications in the time of Ezekiel certainly were that when
Nebuchadnezzar took a city he was quite capable of completing the destruction
himself, so the estimate was placed at one in five.
3. What chance did Ezekiel have of knowing that Tyre would
be made flat like the top of a rock, after it was conquered? How many cities
have been made flat like the top of a rock after being conquered? The sites of
nearly all ancient cities are marked by mounds of accumulated debris. I do not
know of any other city where the ruins have been so completely cleared away, so
the estimate of one in five hundred was chosen.
4. What chance did Ezekiel have of knowing that after the
city had been completely cleared away it would become a popular place for
fishermen? There is really no basis on which to make an estimate. However,
taking this site merely as a little stretch of coast, and considering all
sections of coasts that size, an estimate of one in ten was chosen.
5. What chance did Ezekiel have of knowing that when Tyre
was made flat its building material, and even its dust, was was to be laid in
the sea? Since the site was to be cleared, the debris had to be disposed of,
but it would have been far more likely to have used this material in
constructing the buildings of nearby cities, so the estimate was given as one
in ten.
6. What chance was there of other cities opening their gates
to the conqueror of Tyre without resistance? The estimate was given as one in
five.
7. What was the chance that Tyre, after being made flat,
should never be rebuilt? Nearly all old cities which had great natural
advantages were at some time rebuilt. Tyre is in an excellent location and has
an abundant supply of fresh water, so valuable in this land. The estimate
chosen for this part of the prophecy was one in twenty.
Having been given these estimates by my students for the
probability of the fulfillment of each part of the prophecy, we shall get an
estimate of the probability of the fulfillment of the whole prophecy by
multiplying all of the estimates together. The chance then of Ezekiel writing
this prophecy from his own knowledge, and having it all come true, is 1 in 3 x
5 x 500 x 10 x 10 x 5 x 20. This is 1 in 75,000,000. This can be abbreviated as
1 in 7.5 x 107. The exponent 7 indicates the number of ciphers (digits - or zeros) that are to follow the 7.5.
If Ezekiel had looked at Tyre in his day and had made these
seven predictions in human wisddom, these estimates mean that there would have
been only one chance in 75,000,000 of their all coming true. They all came true
in the minutest detail.27
"Therefore I will make Samaria as a heap of the field,
and as plantings of a vineyard: and I will pour down the stones thereof into
the valley, and I will discover the foundations thereof" (Micah 1:6 -
written 750 B.C.).
This prophecy makes the following five predictions:
1. Samaria shall be destroyed.
2. It shall become as a heap of the field.
3. Vineyards are to occupy its site.
4. Its stones shall be poured down the sides of the bill on
which it stands.
5. Its foundation is to be dug up.
Samaria was still a prominent city 750 years later, in the
time of Christ, and is often mentioned in the New Testament. The city was
finally destroyed, and became a heap of stones and ruins. Gradually the hill
has been cleared; the foundation stones and other rubbish taken to the edge of
the hill, and rolled down into the valley. It is now covered with gardens and
vineyards.
Then my students considered the following:
1. What chance had Micah of predicting the destruction of
the great walled city of Samaria, which was greatly protected b its position on
a hill? The estimate was set at one in four.
2. What was the chance that it should then lie as a heap of
the field, instead of being rebuilt? Many ancient cities are still just heaps
of the field, many others have been rebuilt, so the estimate was given as one
in five.
3. What chance was there that it should become a garden
spot, a place for vineyards? What is the change that the old site of Samaria
should be cleared for gardens when much untilled land lay all around? Very few
old cities were considered to occupy sites of sufficient agricultural value to
clear away all the stones and debris in order to use the ground for gardens, so
the estimate was set at one in one hundred.
4. What is the chance that the stones would be rolled down
the side of the hill when the ground was cleared, instead of being piled in
stacks on the hill, or used for other buildings? Estimate was one in ten.
5. What is the chance that while clearing the ground for the
gardens, the workers would be industrious enough to dig down and remove the
foundation stones, as well as the surface debris? The estimate was placed at
one in two.
If Micah had considered the city of Samaria and made these
five predictions regarding it in human wisdom, his chance of having them come
true would thus be about 1 in 4 x 5 x 100 x 10 x 2. This is 1 in 40,000 or 1 in
4 x 104.28
"For Gaza shall be forsaken, and Ashkelon a desolation
... And the sea coast shall be dwellings and cottages for shepherds, and folds
for flocks" (Zeph. 2:4, 6 - written 630 B.C.).
"And the remnant of the Philistines shall perish, saith
the Lord God" (Amos 1:8 - written 787 B.C.).
"Baldness is come upon Gaza" (Jer. 47:5 - written
600 B.C.).
These prophecies predict four things:
1. The Philistines shall perish.
2. Gaza shall become bald.
3. Ashkelon shall become desolate.
4. The vicinity of ashkelon shall become the dwelling place of shepherds with
their sheep.
When these prophecies were made the Philistines were the
most powerful race in this country. Palestine means the land of the
Philistines, but the Philistines have completely vanished.
A city of Gaza still exists, so for a long time the prophecy
with respect to Gaza was thought to be an error. Finally a careful study was
made of the location of Gaza, as described in the Bible, and it was found that
the new city of Gaza was in the wrong location. A search was made for the old
city and it was found buried under the sand dunes. It had indeed become bald.
What better description could you give of a city buried under sand dunes than to
say that it had become bald?
Ashkelon was one of the main cities of Palestine when the
prophecies regarding it were written. It was a prosperous city in the days of
Christ. Herod the Great beautifully embellished Ashkelon and established his
summer resort there. But in A.D. 1270 sultan Bibars destroyed it, and it has
never been rebuilt. The seacoast in this vicinity has become the grazing place
for many flocks of sheep. It is dotted with shepherd's huts and sheepfolds.
1. Many races of people have continued from the dates of
these prophecies to the present day, but the Philistine has vanished, so the
first estimate is placed at one in five.
2. What is the chance that Gaza would become covered with
sand (bald)? This is extremely rare, especially in Palestine, so the estimate
is set at one in one hundred.
3. The chance that Ashkelon should become desolate was
estimated at one in five.
4. What is the chance that after ashkelon was destroyed, it
and its surroundings should become a sheep country instead of being put to some
other use, or just lying idle, or rebuilt? Estimate, one in five.
Thus the human probability of these four prophecies coming
true would be 1 in 5 x 100 x 5 x 5 or 1.2 x 104.
29
"And Joshua adjured them at that time, saying, Cursed
be the man before the Lord, that riseth up and buildeth this city Jericho: he
shall lay the foundation thereof in his firstborn, and in his youngest son
shall he set up the gates of it" (Joshua 6:26 - written in 1451 B.C.)
This prophecy makes four predictions:
1. Jericho shall be rebuilt.
2. It shall be rebuilt by one man.
3. The builder's oldest son shall die when the work on the city starts.
4. The probability that his youngest son should die just as the gates were
being hung was also estimated, from mortality tables, at one in one hundred.
These give for the whole prophecy a probability of 1 in 2 x
10 x 100 x 100 or 1 in 2 x 105.
Then he brought me back the way of the gate of the outward
sanctuary which looketh toward the east; and it was shut. Then said the Lord
unto me; This gate shall be shut, it shall not be opened, and no man shall
enter in by it ... therefore it shall be shut. It is for the prince ... he
shall sit in it to eat bread before the Lord: he shall enter by the way of the
porch of that gate, and shall go out by the way of the same (Ezek. 44:1-3 -
written 574 B.C.). (Fig 9)
Fig. 7. The famous Golden Gate as seen from outside the ancient walled city of Jerusalem. Courtesy of Moody Institute of Science
When this prophecy was written the road from the kidron
Valley entered through this gate, called the Golden Gate. This gate was in use
at the time of Christ and is thought to be the gate through which He made His
triumphal entry. In A.D. 1543, when the walls of Jerusalem were restored by
Sultan Suleiman, the road to the Golden Gate was no longer in use. The sultan,
seeing no more use for the gate, ordered it closed. Instead of building the
wall straight across the place where the gate had been, he restored the gate
with its arches and ornaments, and then walled up the gate's openings
themselves. Kaiser Wilhelm planned to take Jerusalem and have the Golden Gate
opened for his triumphal entry into the city. Apparently the kaiser thought he
could tamper with prophecy and forcibly violate it. It looks as if this gate
were just waiting for the return of Christ, when it could be reopened and
constitute His main entrance to the city. The gate is just beside the site of
the temple.
What is the probability that this gate should continue to
exist to the present time, and that it should be closed? Estimate, one in one
thousand.
30
"Therefore shall Zion for your sake be plowed as a
field" (Micah 3:12 - written 750 B.C.)
From the writing of this prophecy to the present time parts
of Jerusalem have often been destroyed and rebuilt, but in 1543, when the walls
of Jerusalem were rebuilt by Sultan Suleiman, that part known as Zion, the city
of David, was left outside the walls. It was--and large parts of it still
are--plowed and in grain and other crops. It is the only part of the old city
which ever has been plowed.
What is the chance that this particular part of Jerusalem
should revert to agriculture? It was the most desirable part of Jerusalem.
Solomon's palace was here. Estimate one in one hundred.
31
Behold, the days come, saith the Lord, that the city shall
be built to the Lord from the tower of hananeel unto the gate of the corner.
And the measuring line shall yet go forth over against it upon the hill Gareb,
and shall compass about to Goath. And the whole valley of the dead bodies, and
of the ashes, and all the fields unto the brook of kidron, unto the corner of
the horse gate toward the east, shall be holy unto the Lord; it shall not be
plucked up, nor thrown down any more for ever (Jer. 31:38-40 - written 600
B.C.)
Thus nine items were named in the expansion of the city of
Jerusalem. First it was prophesied that it would expand, then the order of the
expansion.
The accompanying figure shows roughly the shape of the old
city, and the location of each of the nine items mentioned. The early growth of
the city covers numbers 1 and 2; these are inside of Suleiman's wall. Shortly
before 1900 Jerusalem overflowed the wall and started out in the direction of
number 3. It has expanded from number to number in turn, until it is now
building up about the horse gate at number 9.(diagram showing the expansion of
the city of Jerusalem through successive stages in the direction as
prophesied.)
It is rather easy to find the number of ways in which the
city of Jerusalem might have grown in its first nine steps. There are six
definite corners to the old city. Certainly the growth might have started from
any one of these corners, to say nothing of the sides. Let us say then, that
the first development could have come at any of these six corners. Having built
at point number 1 it could have next built at any of the old corners, or gone
on in any one of three directions from number 1; thus, the second expansion
could have come at any of eight places. Continuing this for the nine points and
multiplying the results together, we find that the probability of Jeremiah
writing this prophecy, from human knowledge, and having it come true would be
about 1 in 8 x 1010.
32
"And I will make your cities waste, and bring your
sanctuaries unto desolation... And I will bring the land into desolation: and
your enemies which dwell therein shall be astonished at it. And I will scatter
you among the heathen, and will draw out a sword after you: and your land shall
be desolate, and your cities waste" (Lev. 26:31-33 - written 1491 B.C.).
"Thus saith the Lord God; In the day that I shall have
cleansed you from all your iniquities I will also cause you to dwell in the
cities, and the wastes shall be builded. And the desolate land shall be
tilled" (Ezek. 36:33-35 - written 587 B.C.).
These prophecies make seven predictions:
1. The cities of Palestine shall become waste.
2. The sanctuaries shall become desolate.
3. The land shall become desolate.
4. Enemies shall inhabit the land.
5. The Jews shall be scattered.
6. A sword shall go out after the Jews.
7. The Jews shall return to Palestine; the cities shall be rebuilt, and its
land shall be tilled.
Let us consider these predictions in detail.
1. This prophecy was made soon after the Lord had led the children
of Israel out of Egypt and into the promised land. It did not seem likely that
He would again allow the cities to become waste. Estimate, one in ten.
2. The sanctuaries had been kept active all through the
wilderness. What is the probability that they shall become desolate with the
cities? Estimate, one in two.
3. Visitors to Palestine, before 1900, reported that very
little of the land was tilled; the great mass of it was a total desolation.
Probability estimate, one in ten.
4. Palestine became the stronghold of the Muslims, the
enemies of the Jews; that they occupied the land cannot be doubted. The
estimated probability of this condition was given as one in two.
5. Up to the time of the prophecy, the Jews, even in
persecution, had always stayed together, whether in Egypt, Palestine or Sinai.
The probability that they would be scattered was estimated one in five.
6. The Jews have been persecuted as no other race on the
face of the earth. Their persecution by Hitler, in recent years, is perhaps the
cruelest persecution recorded in all history. Estimated probability was one in
ten.
7. What is the probability that after being so scattered and
persecuted, they would again return and reclaim their country? This reclamation
has been accomplished in the last few years. We have all marveled at its speed
and the military success of the Jews in retaking Palestine. Estimate, one in
ten.
Thus for the fulfillment of the whole prophecy we have a
probability of 1 in 2 x 105.
Note Leviticus 26:8 "And five of you shall chase one
hundred, and one hundred of you shall put ten thousand to flight: and your
enemies shall fall before you by the sword." This prophecy probably was
not originally intended to refer to the 1967 six-day war between Israel and the
Arabs. However, the prophecy is fulfilled in a very remarkable way by this war.
The total population of Egypt, Jordan and Syria is roughly twenty times the
population of Israel, the same ratio as the five to one hundred in the
prophecy. And perhaps no army in history has been more completely routed than
was the Egyptian army in the Sinai Peninsula, when the soldiers fled on foot,
in tanks and in all types of conveyances, many of which piled up on top of each
other trying to get through the mountain passes in their frantic attempted
escape from the forces of Israel.
And say unto the Ammonities...I will deliver thee to the men
of the east for a possession, and they shall set their palaces in thee, and
make their dwellings in thee: they shall eat thy fruit, and they shall drink
thy milk ... Therefore, behold, I will open the side of Moab ... unto the men
of the east (Ezek. 25:3-4,9-10 - written 590 B.C.).
Yet will I bring again the captivity of Moab in the latter
days, saith the Lord (Jer. 48:47 - written 600 B.C.).
I will bring again the captivity of the children of Ammon,
saith the Lord (Jer. 49:6 - written 600 B.C.).
Three things are predicted in these prophecies:
1. Moab and Ammon shall be taken by men of the east and they
shall eat the fruits of the land.
2. The men from the east will build palaces in Ammon.
3. The moabites and Ammonites will eventually be returned and given their land
again.
The Arabs repeatedly raided these countries and took the
fruits of the land. Eventually they drive out most of the inhabitants, but did
little with the land. Palaces which the Arabs built in Ammon are still in use.
Recently the British have protected this country against raids. The land is
again being tilled and cities are growing at rates never before known in this
land.
The estimates for the probable fulfillment of these items
were given as: (1) one in five; (2) one in ten; (3) one in twenty.
This gives an estimate for the whole prophecy of 1 in 103.
33
O thou that dwellest in the clefts of the rock ... I will
bring thee down from thence, saith the Lord. Also Edom shall be a desolation:
every one that goeth by it shall be astonished, and shall hiss at all the
plagues thereof ... No man shall abide there, neither shall a son of man dwell
in it (Jer. 49:16-18 - written 600 B.C.).
The predictions made in this prophecy are:
1. Edom shall be conquered.
2. Edom shall be desolate.
3. Edom shall not be reinhabited.
At the time of the writing of this prophecy Edom was a very
prosperous country. Its soil is considered among the richest in the world. It
was on many great trade routes. Its capital city, Petros, was hewn out of solid
rock, and perhaps had the best natural defenses of any city in the world. It
remained a prosperous city until long after Christ. It was taken by the
Muhammadans in A.D. 636. From that day to this it has lain desolate. A National
Geographical Society expedition, in traveling through the country, reported
that practically no people or animals were found.
The probabilities for the fulfillment of these different
items were estimated as follows: (1) one in ten; (2) one in ten; (3) one in one
hundred.
This gives a probability for the whole prophecy of 1 in 104.
34
And Babylon ... shall never be inhabited, neither shall it
be dwelt in from generation to generation: neither shall the Arabian pitch tent
there; neither shall the shepherds make their fold there. But wild beasts of
the desert shall lie there; and their houses shall be full of doleful creatures
(Isa. 13:19-21 - written 712 B.C.).
And they shall not take of thee a stone for a corner, nor a
stone for foundations; but thou shalt be desolate forever, saith the Lord ...
Neither doth any son of man pass thereby (Jer. 51:26,43 - written 600 B.C.).
These prophecies state that:
1. Babylon shall be destroyed.
2. It shall never be reinhabited.
3. The Arabs shall not pitch their tents there.
4. There shall be no sheepfolds there.
5. Wild beasts shall occupy the ruins.
6. The stones shall not be taken away for other buildings.
7. Men shall not pass by the ruins.
Babylon was conquered in 538 B.C., having been one of the
greatest cities, if not the greatest city of all times. Its walls were 90 feet
thick and 300 feet high, with towers rising much higher. The length of the
walls was about fourteen miles on each side of the city. A river flowed through
the city guaranteeing its water supply. There was enough land within its walls
to supply the city with food. It had no fear of a siege.
Though the Arabs will pitch their tents at nearly any spot,
they are superstitious about Babylon; and though you hire one as a guide, he
will not stay there at night. The ruined city is uninhabited by humans; jackals
and many kinds of wild beasts live in the ruins. There are no sheepfolds about
Babylon.
Bricks and building materials of many kinds have been
salvaged from the ruins for cities round about, but the rocks, which were
imported to Babylon at such great cost, have never been moved.
Though nearly all ancient cities are on prominent tourist routes,
Babylon is not, and has very few visitors.
The probable fulfillment of each item was estimated as
follows: (1) one in ten; (2) one in one hundred; (3) one in two hundred; (4)
one in five; (5) one in five; (6) one in one hundred; (7) one in ten. This
makes a probability for the whole prophecy of 1 in 5 x 109.
35
Listing the prophecies which we have considered and the
probabilities of their fulfillment, we have:
Tyre 1 in 7.5 x 107
Samaria 1 in 4 x 104
Gaza and Ashkelon 1 in 1.2 x 104
Jericho 1 in 2 x 105
The Golden Gate 1 in 103
Zion Plowed 1 in 102
Jerusalem Enlarged 1 in 8 x 1010
Palestine 1 in 2 x 105
Moab and Ammon 1 in 103
Edom 1 in 104
Babylon 1 in 5 x 109
The probability of these eleven prophecies coming true, if
written in human wisdom, is now found by multiplying all of these probabilities
together, and the result is 1 in 5.76 x 1059
Some will say that the estimates given in some of these
prophecies are too large and should be reduced. Other may say that some of the
prophecies are related and should have smaller estimates. That may be true, so
I would suggest that such a person go back over the prophecies and make his own
estimates. They will be found to be still large enough to be conclusive. He may
add to the consideration other prophecies and estimate their probability of
fulfillment. Use, for example, such prophecies as those referring to the city
of Sidon (Ezek. 28:20-23); Capernaum and Bethsaida (Luke 10:13,15); the highway
between Egypt and Assyria (Isa. 19:23-25); changes in Egypt (Ezek. 29:12-15;
30:13). I am sure there are more than enough fulfilled prophecies to establish
the probability number given above even when the estimates are taken from the
most conservative critic.
Others may say that these accounts in the Bible are not
prophecies, but historical accounts written after the events happened. This is
absurd, for all of these prophecies are found in the Old Testament, and every
one dates its writing long before Christ. One of these prophecies was
completely fulfilled before Christ. Two had small parts fulfilled before
Christ, and the remaining parts after Christ. All other prophecies considered
were completely fulfilled after Christ. If we were to strike out all estimates
given for parts of prophecies fulfilled before Christ our probability number
would still be so large that the strength of its argument could not be
comprehended.
Let us try to visualize our probability of 1 in 5.76 x 1059.
Let us round this off to 5 x 1059. Let us suppose that we had that number of silver dollars. What kind of a pile would this be?
The volume of the sun is more than 1,000,000 times that of
the earth, yet out of 5 x 1059 silver dollars we could make 1028 solid silver
balls the size of the sun.
Our group of stars, called our galaxy, comprises all of the
stars which stay together in this one group. It is an extremely large group of
at least 100,000,000,000 stars, each star averaging as large as our sun. At
great distances from our galaxy are other galaxies similar to ours, containing
about the same number of stars. If you were to count the 100,000,000,000 stars,
counting 250 a minute, it would take you 1,000 years, counting day and night,
and you would only have counted the stars in a single galaxy. (Note: All
computations are only approximate and all numbers are expressed with only one
or two digits.)
It has been estimated that the whole universe contains about
two trillion galaxies, each containing about 100 billion stars. From our 5 x
1059 dollars we could make all of the stars, in all of these galaxies, 2 x 105
times.
Suppose we had marked one of these silver dollars, and had
stirred it into the whole pile before we had made them into balls the size of
the sun. Then suppose we had blindfolded a man and told him to go over all of these
great balls and pick up the dollar which he thinks is the right one. What
chance would he have of finding the right one? It would be a very great task to
look over this mass of dollars. If our blindfolded man were to travel sixty
miles per hour, day and night, it would take him five years to go once around a
star. This would give him a very poor chance to select what might be the marked
dollar from that star, but this amount of time per star would take 500 billion
years for each galaxy. Let us suppose our man were extremely speedy, able to
look over all of the dollars contained in 100 billion stars each second
(instead of 500 billion years), it would still take him about 3 x 109 years to
look over the whole mass. This is one half the six billion years back to
creation. It is absurd to think that he would have any conceivable chance of
picking up the right dollar.
The chance of these eleven prophecies being written in human
wisdom, and all coming true, is a similar chance to that which the blindfolded
man had of finding the right dollar. But these prophecies, and many more, all
came true. We can then draw only one conclusion, and that is that God inspired
the writing of every one of these prophecies. What stronger proof can any man
ask for the inspiration of the Bible?
In Isaiah 41:23 the prophet hurled out the challenge to
heathen gods: "Show the things that are to come hereafter, that we may
know that ye are gods."
God has accepted this challenge. He has predicted multitudes
of events to happen in the future. They have come true exactly as predicted,
even though in some cases thousands of years were involved for the fulfillment.
God has proved that He is our supernatural God with all wisdom. We have no
alternative but to believe.
Return to Table of Contents
Continue to Next Chapter
27. Historical references to Tyre are scarce. See the following:
S. A. Cook, "Fall and Rise of Judah," Cambridge Ancient History
(Cambridge: Cambridge University, 1954) III 399-402.
P.V. Myers, General History (Boston: Ginn, 1927), pp. 59, 163
George S. Goodspeed, History of the Ancient World (New York: Scribner, 1904),
pp. 210-12.
H. G. Wells, outline of history (New York: Macmillan, 1920), I, 322-24.
"Tyre," Encyclopaedia Britannica, XXII, 652-53.
George T.B. Davis, Fulfilled Prophecies That Prove the Bible (Philadelphia:
Million Testaments Campaign, 1931), pp. 8-15.
28. George T.B. Davis, Fulfilled Prophecies That Prove the Bible (Philadelphia: Million Testaments Campaign, 1931), pp. 30-33.
29. Davis, pp. 34-39
30. Ibid.
31. Ibid.
32. Ibid, pp. 88-105.
33. Ibid, pp. 56-63
34. Ibid, pp. 72-80
35. Myers, pp. 58-62.